WMO: Likelihood increases of El Niño
The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026. Forecasts indicate there is a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he says.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. These events reshape global weather, influencing rainfall, drought, and extreme events across regions. Governments, humanitarian organizations, water managers, and farmers depend on accurate and timely ENSO forecasts to anticipate and respond to risks.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
Typical impacts
El Niño events affect temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions and typically have a warming effect on the global climate. Thus, 2024 was the hottest year on record because of the combination of the powerful 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases.
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts.
However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.
Global seasonal climate update
WMO also issues a monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode or the Indian Ocean Dipole.
For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere. The signal is especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa.
Rainfall predictions show strong regional variations.
Preparedness and early action
Seasonal forecasts are vital to guide preparedness actions, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water resource management, energy and health.
WMO will issue its next WMO El Niño/La Niña Update in late May, providing more robust guidance for decision-making in the June–August period and beyond. This is based on contributions from WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction and expert consensus, facilitated by WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Regional climate outlook forums issue seasonal predictions at a regional level – for instance the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum will issue its forecast for the South Asian southwest monsoon on 28 April. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are responsible for national updates.
Through the WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM), co-designed and tailored products such as the WCM Global HydroMet Weekly Scan and the WCM Global Seasonal Climate Outlook Briefing support United Nations and humanitarian partners in preparedness and anticipatory action.
The WCM will present its Global Seasonal Climate Outlook Briefing to UN and humanitarian agencies on 29 April, covering ENSO and other climate drivers and key issues of potential concern.
Technical background
As of early April 2026, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is in a neutral phase, as reported by some global climate monitoring centres (BOM, JMA, NOAA), following the end of the 2025–26 La Niña. Observations indicate near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, alongside increasing subsurface heat content.
Most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through boreal spring and El Niño conditions to emerge during boreal summer/autumn, with some suggesting El Niño SST thresholds as early as in May-July 2026, and potentially persisting into the end of the year (BCC, C3S, DWD, IRI, NOAA, UK Met Office, information from GPCs-SP WMO LC SPMME).
Such information is reflected in recent ENSO outlooks from several climate centres (BOM, CIIFEN, JMA, NOAA). This projected evolution is supported by the accumulation of warmer than average subsurface waters in equatorial Pacific, a key precursor for El Niño development.
