La Niña may develop, but it is likely to be weak and short-lived
La Niña conditions may develop in the next three months but are expected to be relatively weak and short-lived, according to the latest Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
Latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a 55% likelihood of a transition from the current neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) to La Nina conditions during December 2024 to February 2025.
The return of the ENSO-neutral conditions is then favored during February-April 2025, with about 55% chance.
La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, such as winds, pressure and rainfall. Generally, La Niña produces the opposite large-scale climate impacts to El Niño, especially in tropical regions.
However, naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino events are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
“The year 2024 started out with El Niño and is on track to be the hottest on record. Even if a La Niña event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“Even in the absence of El Niño or La Niña conditions since May, we have witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding which have unfortunately become the new norm in our changing climate,” said Celeste Saulo.
As of the end of November 2024, oceanic and atmospheric observations continue to reflect ENSO-neutral conditions which have persisted since May. Sea surface temperatures are slightly below average over much of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific.
However, this cooling has not yet reached typical La Niña thresholds. One possible reason for this slow development is the strong westerly wind anomalies observed for much September to early November 2024, which are not conducive for La Niña development. The previous Update, issued in September, forecast a 60% likelihood of la Niña in December-February.
Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the associated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action.
