Launch of the WMO ElL Niño/ La Niña Bulletin (June-August 2026)

Members of the media,  

The World Meteorological Organization’s latest El Niño/La Niña Update confirms that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific and are expected to influence weather and climate patterns around the world in the months ahead  

Our experts estimate an 80 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will emerge in the period between June and August 2026. This likelihood increases to around 90 per cent through the remainder of the forecast period (September-December). Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate, with the possibility of becoming strong.  This update matters because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns. A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system which can serve to worsen some climate extremes including heatwaves and heavy rainfall. The strong El Niño of 2023-2024 added a temporary warming effect on top of an already long-term warming trend. This contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record.  

So what impacts can we expect to see? It is important to note that no two El Niño events are exactly alike.  Impacts can also vary from region to region, and other climate drivers also play an important role. In some regions it is likely we will see heavy rainfall and floods; in others drought conditions; and in others, increased or reduced tropical cyclone activity. We can also expect an increased risk of extreme heat, with higher temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns adding further stress on human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and energy systems.  This is why WMO-supported regional and national climate outlooks, which assess the likely implications of climate drivers on the most pertinent socio-economic sectors in each region, will be especially critical in decision making and preparedness in the months to come.  

Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face. An El Niño event could intensify this threat on average: more heat-related illness, wider spread of vector-borne diseases, increased pressure on food and water systems, and communities that were already struggling will be pushed further beyond their limits.  

The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions.  

But El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. Forecasts such as what WMO presents today, are a call to action – with reliable and accurate forecasts and effective early warnings, we can anticipate impacts, take steps to reduce risks and act before hazards become crises. We must intensify our efforts to build our early warning systems, including those hazards amplified by El Niño.  128 countries in the world now report that they have multi-hazard early warning systems in place. Our goal must be to ensure that everybody has access to science-based advance intelligence so that communities are empowered to manage risks and preserve lives and property; to make decisions about crop strategies; to manage heat and drought; and to prepare for storms and cyclones.   Such forecasts also importantly enable humanitarian agencies and disaster management authorities to take early action before hazards escalate into crises, protecting vulnerable people and strengthening preparedness everywhere.  

With stronger observation networks, better forecasting science, and information available to everybody, we can help keep economies strong and thriving even in adverse weather and climate conditions.

The signals are clear:  so too must be our actions. As governments, as the United Nations, as forecasters, as humanitarians, as healthcare professionals, and as leaders in the financial sector, with El Niño on the horizon we must prepare for its impacts and build resilience.