El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2026)
- Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño
- El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns
- Above average temperatures forecast nearly everywhere for June to August
- Advanced forecasts help in preparations to protect lives and livelihoods
- Time for informed decision-making, planning and preparedness is now
As of mid-May 2026, sea surface temperature anomalies are increasing across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, indicating an ongoing warming pattern that may support El Niño development. The latest seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres indicate a pronounced shift toward El Niño conditions, with probabilities reaching 80% for June–August 2026, while the likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions has diminished to 20%.
For July–September, August-October and September-November, El Niño conditions are forecast to remain dominant, with probabilities consistently near or above 90%, whereas ENSO-neutral conditions persist at only around 10%. The redevelopment of La Niña remains unlikely in the extended outlook. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
