El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2025)

As of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions across the equatorial Pacific. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55% probability that the existing cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific will be consistent with La Niña thresholds, and a 45% likelihood of a transition back to ENSO-neutral conditions during the December–February 2025–2026 period. For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65% to 75%, while La Niña probabilities correspondingly diminish from near 35% to 25%. Prospects for El Niño development remain negligible throughout the outlook period up to April 2026. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed.