El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2026)
- El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further
- WMO Forecasts show near 100% likelihood that it will persist through February 2027
- Exceptionally warm tropical Pacific Ocean conditions support further intensification
- A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and fuel extreme weather
- WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services step up preparedness and early-warning efforts for an exceptional event
As of mid-August 2026, El Niño has become firmly established, marked by persistent and intensifying positive sea surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest seasonal forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres indicate an exceptionally high likelihood (nearly 100% probability) that El Niño will persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027.
Forecasts indicate further strengthening of El Niño in the coming months, with the event forecast to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of the year. ENSO-neutral conditions or a return to La Niña are not anticipated during the outlook period. A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of significant shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns in many parts of the world. However, the strength of an El Niño event does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in any region.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
