Global Annual to Decadal Update - Press Briefing remarks
On this World Environment Day, the World Meteorological Organization is once again sounding the Red Alert.
As the UN Secretary-General says, it is climate crunch time.
The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Report provides temperature predictions for the next five years.
The statistics are startling.
There is a nearly nine in ten likelihood that at least one year between 2024-2028 will be the hottest on record.
Even hotter than 2023, which smashed all temperature records.
And witnessed extreme heat, drought, fires, floods and ice and glacier retreat.
There is also a nine in ten likelihood that the next five years will be the warmest five-year period on record.
There is a 50-50 chance that global temperature averaged over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial era.
Last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period put this chance at less than one-third.
This report makes it clear that we are on a record-breaking warming path. It is expected to get even worse over the next five years.
There is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five calendar years.
Back in 2015, such a chance was close to zero.
Indeed, as we will hear from Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average temperature for the last 12 months (June 2023 – May 2024) already exceeded that level.
Behind the predictions and statistics is the stark reality that we risk:
- trillions of dollars in economic losses,
- millions of lives upended and
- destruction of fragile and precious ecosystems.
What is clear is that the Paris Agreement target of 1.5° C is hanging on a thread.
It’s not yet dead.
The Paris Agreement refers to long-term temperature increases over decades, not over one to five years.
Temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 goal is permanently lost.
However, we can expect to exceed the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency.
What else are we predicting?
Arctic warming over the next five extended winters is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global average.
Warm sea surface temperatures are expected to contribute to active North Atlantic tropical cyclone seasonsover the next five years.There have been eight consecutive years of above-average activity.
As our planet enters this new record-breaking era, we can expect to see
- more oppressive heat waves, affecting the health of billions of people.
- more increases in marine heatwaves, jeopardizing livelihoods and natural ecosystems
- more sea level rise, threatening coastal populations everywhere.
- more intense rainfall events, pushing our infrastructure beyond its limits.
Feared future scenarios are here now.
In the last 7 days, many locations in North Africa, the Middle East, India, Pakistan and Mexico had temperatures of 45 to 50 °C and even higher.
This is too hot to handle.
The extreme rainfall that led to destructivefloodsin southern Brazil in late April and early May were made twice as likely due to climate change, according to a new scientific study.
WMO is predicting that we will transition to La Niña later this year.
But any cooling from La Niña will be temporary. A mere blip in the upward curve.
We all know we need to reverse the curve. And we need to do it urgently.
This is why WMO is speeding up the rollout of Early Warnings for All – which is WMO’s top priority to safeguard people and economies. WMO’s Executive Council will next week approve an implementation roadmap.
Executive Council will next week also examine the proposed implementation plan for Global Greenhouse Gas Watch. This is meant to inform mitigation action.
WMO members are improving weather and climate services to support the shift to renewables.
WMO is committed to providing policy-relevant science. We look to decision-makers to act on it.
The cost of climate inaction will ultimately be, and already is, far higher than the cost of climate action.
