Early warnings for all: Monitoring progress

In March 2022, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres set an ambitious goal when he announced that everyone on Earth would be protected by early warning systems by 2027. WMO and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) were appointed to lead the Early Warnings for All Initiative with support from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). Together, they identified four essential pillars for the implementation of sustainable Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWs): 1) disaster risk knowledge, 2) detection, observation, monitoring, analysis and forecasting, 3) warning dissemination and communication and  4) preparedness and response capabilities. In 2023, they published the Global Status of Early Warning Systems to ensure that progress could be tracked and defined a set of minimum national capability requirements as the key to ensuring early warnings and action by 2027. WMO, as the lead organization for the pillar focused on hazard detection, monitoring and forecasting, then developed the Rapid Assessment of Hazard Monitoring and Forecasting Capacity as a methodology to assess its Members capabilities along eight elements of the hydrometeorological value chain. 

The Rapid Assessment looks at the enabling environment for effective early warnings systems legal framework, institutional mechanisms, financial and technological capabilities as well as core technical aspects related to observing capacity, forecasting capacity and the delivery of warning services. The baseline data and analysis from the Rapid Assessments are also used to inform the planning stage of the Initiatives implementation and to identify the big capacity gaps that require targeted technical assistance and investment. 

The Rapid Assessment started in June 2023 and 40 have been completed so far in close collaboration with the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Members. The Rapid Assessment results provide substantive analysis for defining national roadmaps for the implementation of Early Warnings for All. They are also made available to all the Initiatives partners and funding institutions for consideration in their investment decisions. 

WMO findings in the Early Warnings for All in Focus: Hazard Monitoring and Forecasting are based on aggregate analysis from Rapid Assessment data. Impact-based forecasting is by far the area with the biggest deficiencies in human resources, training, technical solutions and access to vulnerability and impact data. Hazard monitoring is also a big challenge for many NMHSs with basic or less-than-basic observations for certain priority hazards, with few or no automatic weather stations, and with insufficient funding and human capacity for upkeep, maintenance, calibration and quality-control of stations and instruments. 

National Rapid Assessment analysis and underlying data are available on the Early Warnings for All Dashboard, which was launched at the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) as the centralized data portal of the Initiative. Bringing together data from all partners, the dashboard presents selected monitoring indicators structured along three categories:

• Global indicators: metrics that capture the Initiatives impact on the availability of end-to-end, people-centred MHEWSs
• Implementation indicators: metrics intended to measure the Initiatives pillar implementation strategies as well as key elements of the enabling environment
• Country capacity indicators: baseline data on the early warning capacity of the roll-out countries with an initial focus on the hazard monitoring and forecasting pillar. 

As a next step, the Early Warning for All Monitoring and Evaluation Working Group will work on the development of a maturity index based on the Rapid Assessment and the minimum core capabilities established for the four pillars. On its side, WMO will upscale the application of the capacity assessments to 60 countries in 2024 and to 100 countries by the end of 2025 through the readiness phase of the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) and upon demand from Members and WMO Regional Associations.