El Niño/La Niña Update (October 2020)

A La Niña event has developed in the tropical Pacific in August-September 2020, exceeding both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds. The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centers of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a high likelihood (90%) of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures remaining at La Niña levels until the end of 2020, and a moderate likelihood (55%) for them to persist through the first quarter of 2021. Most models indicate that the 2020/2021 La Niña is likely to be a moderate to strong event. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely monitor changes in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months and provide updated outlooks.