El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2015)

A strong and mature El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of international climate outlook models indicate that the 2015-16 El Niño will strengthen slightly before the end of the year. Models and expert opinion suggest that peak 3-month average surface water temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean will exceed 2 degrees Celsius above average, placing this El Niño event among the three strongest previous events since 1950 (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98). National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, WMO Regional Climate Centres, and other agencies will continue to monitor the conditions over tropical Pacific for further El Niño evolution and will assess the most likely local impacts across those regions known to be affected by El Niño.