El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2022)

The La Niña that developed in the second half of 2021 remains active in the tropical Pacific, although there are indications of its weakening, in terms of both oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate a moderate chance (about 65%) of the current La Niña conditions continuing during March-May 2022, and about a 35% chance of their further weakening to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions. The La Niña event is forecast to dissipate thereafter, with ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category from April-June onward (50-60% chance). National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks.