El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2004)

At present, warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures are observed in the
central equatorial Pacific, and most computer models are currently forecasting some
warming to prevail in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for the remainder of
the year. Development of an EI Nino event in the second half of the year would not
be unprecedented, but would be unusual. While the chances of an EI Nino have
increased, expert opinion currently favours a range of possible outcomes for the
basin-wide state of the tropical Pacific from near-neutral to EI Nino for the remainder
of the year, giving EI Nino about as much chance as not of developing. La Nina is not
considered likely.