Early Warnings for All: Empowering All to Climate Action

By Muhibuddin Usamah, Erica Allis, Cyrille Honore and Johan Stander, WMO Secretariat

The climate crisis grows in intensity day by day, and with it the urgency for early warning systems (EWS) to mitigate impacts. These systems are about saving lives, protecting livelihoods and empowering communities to take decisive action. The global Early Warnings for All initiative aims to ensure that everyone everywhere, from the most remote villages to the busiest cities, is equipped with information to protect themselves from high-impact weather, water and climate threats.  

While the power of EWS are clear, implementing such systems is challenging and the 2027 goal set for providing Early Warnings for All looms.

The power of early warnings 

On 14 May 2023, Tropical Cyclone Mocha struck the Bay of Bengal, bringing sustained winds of 180 km/h to 190 km/h, violent gusts, heavy rainfall and flooding. The Cyclone’s landfall brought compounding impacts that exacerbated local vulnerabilities. Storm surges extended far beyond the immediate impact zones, particularly affecting the low-lying regions of Sittwe, Myanmar, and of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Both Myanmar and Bangladesh are Least Developed Countries (LDCs) on the Bay of Bengal with geographic vulnerabilities. Mocha, one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal, swept across densely populated coastal areas, with severe implications for the world’s largest refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar where nearly one million people reside in precarious, makeshift shelters. Evacuations were conducted ahead of the Cyclone, thanks to the warnings provided by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, hosted by Indian Meteorological Department. State media and local officials reported 145 deaths across the country. In 2008, 15 years earlier, Cyclone Nargis, a storm of similar magnitude on the same coastline, had resulted in over 138 000 fatalities. Despite the vulnerabilities, Cyclone Mocha’s impacts differed markedly from those of previous storms – the power of early warnings.

Another compelling example of the transformative power of EWS comes from Mozambique, a country frequently hit by tropical cyclones. In 2019, Cyclone Idai struck Mozambique with devastating force, causing widespread destruction and loss of life. The disaster highlighted the urgent need for better early warning and preparedness systems. In response, the Mozambican Government, with support from international partners, invested in improving its early warning infrastructure. This included upgrading weather forecasting technology, training local communities on how to interpret and respond to warnings, and ensuring that information reaches the most remote areas. Four years later, in 2023, when Cyclone Freddy struck Mozambique – at 36 days, it was one of the longest-lasting and most intense tropical storms on record – its impacts were mitigated due to robust EWS. Communities were better prepared, and timely evacuations were conducted, significantly reducing the loss of life compared to previous cyclones. While Cyclone Freddy caused substantial damage, effective EWS – early warnings, enhanced preparedness and swift responses – demonstrated life-saving potential.

Japan and the Philippines have also benefited from advanced early warnings during the typhoon seasons, leading to the evacuation of vulnerable communities and minimizing casualties. Moreover, in the United States of America (US), early warnings from the National Weather Service ahead of hurricanes and tornadoes have repeatedly proven essential in safeguarding communities.

The importance of EWS provided by National Meteorological Hydrological Services (NMHSs) has been globally recognized, as these systems have demonstrably reduced the loss of life during extreme events. The global evidence underscores that investing in EWS is not only a measure of preparedness but a critical life-saving tool in the face of increasingly frequent and severe natural hazards.

Why EWS are essential

Around the globe, communities are facing more intense and frequent extreme events due to climate change. The impacts are everywhere, from rising sea levels to prolonged droughts, from devastating floods to intense heatwaves. The number of medium- or large-scale disaster events is projected to reach 560 a year – or 1.5 each day – by 2030.¹ These events do not just disrupt daily life; they destroy livelihoods, displace families and claim lives.

Inclusive and multi-hazard EWS are one of the most effective ways to save lives and livelihoods in advance of a climate or non-climate hazard. Countries with limited early warning coverage have disaster mortality rates that are eight times higher than countries with substantial to comprehensive coverage.² Key benefits of EWS include:

1. Saving lives: Early warnings give people the time they need to evacuate or take shelter, reducing the risk of injury or death
2. Protecting livelihoods: By allowing communities to prepare, early warnings help safeguard homes, businesses and agricultural production
3. Reducing economic losses: Timely warnings can minimize the damage to infrastructure, reducing the economic impacts of natural hazards
4. Empowering communities: Knowledge is power. When communities have access to accurate and timely information, they can take control of their own safety and make informed decisions.

The Early Warnings for All initiative

In 2022, the United Nations Secretary-General called for Early Warnings for All by 2027 at the 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The initiative aims to ensure universal protection from hazardous hydrometeorological, climatological and other related environmental events through life-saving Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS), anticipatory action and by building resilience.

EWS have already helped to decrease the number of deaths and to reduce losses and damages resulting from hazardous weather, water and climate events. But major gaps still exist, especially in Small-Island Developing States (SIDS) and LDCs:³

• 50% of countries worldwide report having adequate multi-hazard early warning systems. As of recent reports, only about 46% of LDCs and 39% of SIDS have reported the existence of some form of national MHEWS
• Climate, weather and water-related extremes have led to 15 times more deadly hazards in Africa, South Asia, South and Central America, and SIDS
• Over the past 50 years, 70% of all fatalities from climate-related disasters – including extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves – have occurred in 46 LDCs.

Findings from some 24 national Early Warnings for All workshops, conducted by WMO in 2023/2024, revealed major barriers and challenges in implementing MHEWS:

• Infrastructure and technical capacity – In many parts of the world, particularly in low-income countries, the infrastructure for EWS is lacking or inadequate. There is also insufficient technical capacity and high-quality data for downscaled climate modelling and impact-based forecasting.
• Funding and resources – Establishing and maintaining EWS requires significant financial resources, which is a barrier for some countries.
• Institutional and regulatory frameworks – There is insufficient institutional, legislative, and regulatory frameworks and coordination for effective delivery of climate services and MHEWS. Effective early warning services require coordination across multiple sectors and levels of government, which can be difficult to achieve.
• Cultural and social barriers – In some communities, traditional beliefs and practices may conflict with modern early warning methods, making it challenging to convince people to take action. There is also limited awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change science and potential impacts.
• Communication and user engagement – There is a lack of targeted communication on climate risk information or early warnings tailored to specific user needs. There are limited capacities at the national, regional and community levels to use climate services and EWS to reduce disaster risks.

To address these challenges, the Early Warning for All initiatives requires coordinated efforts with stakeholders across various sectors. Success hinges on strong national leadership and collaborative engagement throughout the MHEWS value cycle (Figure). In support of these objectives, the Early Warnings For All initiative has developed an interpillar programming guide to clarify and guide actions within and across MHEWS value cycle: 

1. Impact and risk-based forecasts and warnings – Weather forecasts that warn about pending weather events and their potential impacts on people, housing, services and the environment to help those at risk to better prepare for and respond to weather events
2. Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and strategic risk communication – Strong communication frameworks and systems are required to share timely, accurate and clear information with everyone before, during and after hazardous events to facilitate informed decision-making to stay safe
3. Early and anticipatory action planning – Work with at risk populations to develop preparedness and early action plans that are integrated into national and local disaster risk management plans to ensure that everyone is prepared and knows what to do in emergencies
4. Comprehensive simulations of MHEWS value cycle – Regular practice and test of EWS through different scenario simulations to improve response strategies and ensures that the systems work well in real-life situations
5. Monitoring and reporting on MHEWS coverage and effectiveness – The results of monitoring and evaluation should be shared with national and global stakeholders to continuously improve approaches
6. MHEWS Governance – Clear and effective national management structures are required for EWS, including clear policies, legal frameworks and coordination across different sectors and levels of government, ensuring accountability and proper resource allocation. In addition, the initiative also looks at three transversal issues for consideration: financing, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.

The role of NMHSs

NHMSs are at the core of the Early Warning for All initiative. These agencies are the backbone of effective EWS, providing the critical weather and climate information needed to protect lives and livelihoods. As the official providers and the sole authoritative sources of meteorological and hydrological data in their respective countries, NHMSs are uniquely positioned to drive the success of this global initiative.

NHMSs are responsible for monitoring and predicting weather patterns, issuing forecasts and providing early warnings when extreme weather events threaten the population. Their mandate aligns perfectly with the goals of the Early Warning for All initiative, placing them at the heart of initiative’s success.

NHMSs possess the technical expertise and sophisticated technology required to monitor weather conditions accurately Figure. Key interpillar areas of Early Warnings for All and in real-time.

Their ability to provide timely and reliable forecasts is crucial for issuing early warnings that can save lives. Every NHMS has a thorough understanding of the unique climatic conditions and weather patterns in their countries, better than any external organization. This local knowledge allows them to tailor early warnings to the specific needs of their communities, ensuring that the information is relevant and actionable. As the official source of weather information, NHMS are relied upon by governments, emergency services and the public. This credibility is essential when issuing warnings that require immediate action, as people are more likely to follow guidance from an authoritative source. NHMS are already integrated into national disaster management frameworks, enabling them to coordinate effectively across government and local agencies such as emergency services and health departments. This integration ensures that early warnings lead to swift and coordinated responses.

Strengthening NHMS for effective EWS

To fully realize the potential of NHMSs, it’s essential to support and strengthen them. The focus areas highlighted below were identified during the aforementioned national Early Warnings for All workshops and are reflected in the corresponding national roadmaps developed as part of this global effort.

1. Investment in technology – NHMSs need access to the latest weather forecasting and monitoring technology, including advanced radar systems, satellites and data analytics tools. Investments in these technologies will enhance their ability to predict extreme weather events with greater accuracy and lead times.
2. Capacity building – Continuous training and development of NHMS personnel are crucial. Building capacity at all levels – from meteorologists to communication specialists – will ensure that NHMSs can maintain high standards of service and adapt to the evolving challenges posed by climate change.
3. Public engagement – NHMS should engage with the public to raise awareness about the importance of EWS and how to respond to them. This includes running educational campaigns, collaborating with local media, and using social media platforms to reach a broader audience.
4. Collaboration and Partnerships – NHMSs should work closely with other national and international organizations, including nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), private sector companies and research institutions, to enhance their capabilities and ensure that early warnings are part of a broader, coordinated disaster management strategy.

As the climate crisis accelerates, the role of NHMSs is heightened. They must be equipped and empowered to co-lead the Early Warning for All initiative in their respective countries. Governments, international organizations and communities need to recognize the central role of NHMSs and provide the necessary support to ensure their success.

Empowering NHMS as we move forward is not just about enhancing weather forecasting, it is about empowering entire communities to take climate action and building a safer, more resilient future for all.

Footnotes

1 GAR2022: Our World at Risk | UNDRR, 2022 2 Global Status of MHEWS 2023, UNDRR, WMO; 2023 3 Ibid, UNDRR, WMO; 2023