El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2020)

Since July 2019 sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (signifying that neither El Niño nor La Niña have prevailed). Since October, sea surface temperatures intermittently warmed towards the threshold of El Niño levels, but at least half of the key tropical Pacific atmospheric indicators have remained neutral during these recent months. WMO Global Producing Centers of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) indicate that sea surface temperatures are most likely to cool and return towards average conditions after March, and remain at ENSO-neutral levels into the third quarter of 2020. Given current conditions and model predictions, the chance of ENSO-neutral conditions to prevail during March-May 2020 is estimated to be at 60%, while chances for El Niño and La Niña conditions to occur are 35% and 5%, respectively, in the same period. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, taking into account the increased uncertainty in long-range forecasts at this time of the year.