El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2022)

La Niña conditions, which started in September 2020, continued to prevail through mid-May 2022 across the tropical Pacific. While there was a temporary weakening of the oceanic components of La Niña during January and February 2022, a resurgence of La Niña has been observed since March 2022, further strengthening thereafter in terms of both oceanic and atmospheric indicators. WMO Global Producing Centers for Long Range Forecasts indicate that there is a high probability (about 70%) of the current La Niña conditions extending into boreal summer 2022 and continuing thereafter, but with slightly reduced probability of about 50-60% during July-September 2022. However, there are indications that the probability may increase again slightly, with greater uncertainty, during the boreal fall of 2022 and early boreal winter of 2022-23. Return to ENSO-neutral conditions is less likely (around 30%) during June-August, while it is very unlikely for El Niño to develop. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.