About the Global Seasonal Climate Update

The Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) is WMO's flagship seasonal climate outlook, providing authoritative information on the current state of the climate system and expected temperature and rainfall patterns for the coming three months. Issued monthly, the GSCU brings together the latest global climate science to support informed decision-making worldwide.  

The GSCU assesses the current status and evolution of major large-scale climate drivers that influence seasonal climate around the world. These include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature patterns and other large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions that shape global climate variability. By considering the combined influence of these drivers, the GSCU provides an integrated assessment of their likely impacts on seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe.

The Update combines global climate monitoring from leading international centres, including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with seasonal forecasts from WMO-designated Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction (GPCs). These forecasts are combined through the WMO Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME), jointly operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and NOAA, to produce a robust multi-model outlook. Using multiple state-of-the-art prediction systems improves forecast reliability and provides an indication of forecast confidence through model agreement.

The GSCU complements WMO's long-standing ENSO Updates by providing a broader assessment of the climate system. While the ENSO Updates focus on the development and evolution of El Niño and La Niña, the GSCU evaluates how ENSO interacts with other major climate drivers to shape seasonal climate patterns across regions worldwide. Together, these two flagship outlooks provide WMO Members and partners with a comprehensive picture of global seasonal climate conditions and their potential impacts.

The GSCU provides the scientific basis for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to produce regional and national seasonal outlooks tailored to local conditions. It also supports United Nations agencies, humanitarian organizations, governments, and climate-sensitive sectors in strengthening preparedness, anticipatory action, and climate risk management.

For more information: GSCU Evolution: WMO Cg/EC/CClDecisions (key development milestones).

Past releases

Since May 2019 the GSCU is being produced on a regular basis as a pre-operational product and disseminated widely to WMO Members, as well as regional and international partners and United Nations organizations. The GSCU current and past releases are accessible in real-time through a dedicated web page of LC-SPMME website.