El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2015)

A mature and strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of international climate outlook models suggest that the 2015-16 El Niño is likely to strengthen further before the end of the year. Models and expert opinion suggest that surface water temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to exceed 2° Celsius above average, potentially placing this El Niño event among the four strongest events since 1950 (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98).