Global Seasonal Climate Update for May-June-July 2026
Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For May–July 2026 (MJJ 2026), the Niño 3.4 plume (Figure 5, left)
indicates a rapid warming trend. Following the transition to neutral conditions in early 2026, the multi-model ensemble
(MME) shows a nearly unanimous trajectory toward El Niño by May. By MJJ, the MME average approaches 1.5°C. The
tight clustering of the models, despite the typical spring predictability barrier, underscores the high confidence in the onset
of El Niño, followed by further intensification
About the Global Seasonal Climate Updates series
The Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) is WMO's flagship seasonal climate outlook, providing authoritative information on the current state of the climate system and expected temperature and rainfall patterns for the coming three months. Issued monthly, the GSCU brings together the latest global climate science to support informed decision-making worldwide.
