Rapid El Niño development poised to approach strongest on record Summer climate responses becoming evident

18 August 2026

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial central‑eastern Pacific are rising steadily and are expected to peak around November–December, likely producing a super El Niño event that may well become the strongest in historical records. Since the start of this summer, China's climate patterns have shown the classic fingerprints of a developing El Niño: two major rain belts in the east (north and south), with widespread, intense, and overlapping heavy rainfall events leading to compounding hazards; active and powerful typhoons with prolonged wind and rain impacts.

Equatorial central‑eastern Pacific warming continues, with a high probability of becoming the strongest El Niño on record

The equatorial central‑eastern Pacific entered an El Niño state in May 2026. Since then, SSTs have been climbing rapidly. The El Niño index in the monitoring region reached 2.09°C in July, a rise of 0.49°C from June and surged further to 2.64°C in the first half of August, indicating an exceptionally fast warming pace.