An exceptional El Niño demands an exceptional response

Dear members of the media,

I’m pleased to be with you today for the release of the new World Meteorological Organization El Niño Update. Thank you for your interest.

WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers. They are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, climate prediction centres and experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services around the world.

These forecasts show an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. Nearly one hundred percent. This is the first time that we have expressed such a degree of certainty.  

El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in this region are already well above average and are continuing to rise. Sub-surface ocean temperatures are also exceptionally high – in some areas more than eight degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August.

This means that there is a huge pool of very warm ocean waters that will fuel the intensity of El Niño. The WMO Update shows that El Niño has strengthened and will continue as a very strong event, even exceptionally strong, in the coming months.  

If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began - so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.  

El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that – including on global temperatures.  

The powerful 2023/2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record. We should not be surprised if this record is broken.  WMO will be closely monitoring global temperatures in the months ahead.

Why does this matter?    

El Niño means the boy child because it was first noticed by Peruvian fishermen around Christmas time. It sounds so small and innocent.  

But this El Niño will deliver a major blow to communities, economies and supply chains across the globe. So many sectors will be affected: agriculture, trade, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, disaster management to name but a few.  

We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and extreme weather. We expect these impacts to multiply – and cascade - as El Niño intensifies.

This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Seasonal forecasts, such as the WMO El Niño Updates provide a vital window of opportunity. We have no time to lose.

What are we doing?

WMO has launched an unprecedented mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.

We are also working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system.

WMO is part of a core UN team with the UN Office of Disaster Risk Reduction and the Food and Agriculture Organization working with UN Country Teams in managing risks associated with the 2026-2027 El Niño episode, while identifying opportunities for building resilience.  The WMO Coordination Mechanism is providing tailored expertise to the humanitarian sector.    

Coordination and commitment are essential.  

In Africa, the African Union has called for a collective response. Preparedness for El Niño will be one of the focuses of the Africa Early Warnings Forum taking place this week in Addis Ababa.  

For example, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency has a nation-wide awareness campaign, reaching the agriculture and food security sector, railways and roads, disaster managers and the public.  

Across Latin America and the Caribbean, UN partners are rolling out preparedness plans in countries traditionally hard hit by El Niño. Anticipatory action plans include cash assistance, drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection and flood-protection measures.  

Panama has declared a National State of Emergency to mobilize spending on preventive and response measures. In parallel, the Panama Canal Authority has implemented water-saving operations as part of wider measures to strengthen water sustainability.

Peru has declared a state of emergency across 40 percent of the country for flooding and landslides.  

In Asia, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in some countries are advising decision-makers about the risk of below-normal rainfall.  

India convened a high-level inter-ministerial review of El Niño preparedness, involving agriculture, health, water, power and economic agencies. Singapore is strengthening protection against extreme heat through both worker-safety rules and a national heatwave response plan.  

Nations in the Pacific are geared up for an above-average tropical cyclone season.  

WMO will be showcasing more examples of proactive planning in the coming weeks.  

I've said this before, and I’ll say it again: El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster. We have the forecasts and foresight to save lives and protect livelihoods.  

Today we are issuing a call to action. The science is clear. We have the knowledge and tools to prevent El Niño- related hazards becoming a crisis. Let us join together and ensure that we leave nobody behind.