El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2018)

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October 2018. However, most overlying atmospheric indicators have not yet responded, and remain at ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. The lack of a coupled atmosphere and ocean pattern means El Niño has not yet become established. Most forecast models predict ocean temperatures will remain at El Niño levels through the remainder of 2018 and into the first quarter of 2019.