Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2026
Outlook for Oceanic Drivers for the Next Season: For the July–September 2026 (JAS 2026) season, the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates a rapid development into a strong El Niño event. By JAS 2026, the MME is forecast to reach approximately 2.0°C for the seasonal average. The intensification trajectory maintains an upward trend throughout the boreal autumn. Spread among the individual forecast systems is generally narrow during JAS 2026, indicating high forecast confidence. The Indian Ocean is also forecast to experience development of the positive IOD phase, with the JAS 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.6°C. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warm; SSTs in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic are predicted to stay slightly above normal.
About the Global Seasonal Climate Updates series
The Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) is WMO's flagship seasonal climate outlook, providing authoritative information on the current state of the climate system and expected temperature and rainfall patterns for the coming three months. Issued monthly, the GSCU brings together the latest global climate science to support informed decision-making worldwide.
