Statement of the ninth session of the South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-9)
Statement of the ninth session of the South-West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-9) which took place from 14 to 17 September 2020 [web conference].
Climate information
From October through January (2020/21):
- For October-November-December season (OND), normal rainfall is likely to occur over a large part of the SWIO region except in Tanzania, North Malawi and Seychelles where normal to below normal rainfall is expected. Mauritius is expected to experience normal to above normal rainfall. The forecast for North-West and South-East regions of Madagascar shows some uncertainties and therefore does not give any specific rainfall scenario. In general, most of the countries are expected to experience normal to above normal temperatures, with the exception for Seychelles where normal temperatures are expected. Above normal temperatures are expected to occur in East Tanzania, Comoros and Madagascar.
- For November-December-January season (NDJ), a gradient from north to south of the region can be monitored for the rainfall pattern. Normal to below normal rainfall can be expected over Tanzania, North Malawi and Seychelles. Normal rainfall conditions are likely over Mozambique, South Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar and the Reunion island. Note that the expected rainfall conditions over central Mozambique and North-East Madagascar cannot be determined due to a high level of uncertainty in the forecast. Over South Africa and Mauritius island, normal to above normal rainfall is likely to occur.
The temperatures are likely to be normal to above normal over South Africa, South and central Mozambique, West Tanzania and the eastern side of Madagascar. Most of the regions are expected to experience normal temperatures, with an exception for Comoros where above normal temperatures are expected.
- For the Cyclone activity: Near normal activity is expected. The basin could experience 8 to 10 named tropical systems. Privileged cyclogenesis area may be shifted east of Diego Garcia. However, with privileged parabolic trajectories, all inhabited islands may be impacted by tropical systems.