El Niño/La Niña Update (March 2004)

The development of EI Nino or La Nina is unlikely in the next several months. The
Pacific basin-wide state continues to be neutral and most indications suggest it will
remain so through the first half of 2004. This message is therefore similar to that
provided in the last statement (October 2003). However, because of the time of year
at present, some additional caution is necessary. The period from around March
through to June is known historically to be the time of year when rapid developments
have most often occurred. It is also the time of year that is the most difficult to
forecast.