El Niño/La Niña Update (March 2018)

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean remain at weak La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators are now consistent with an imminent decay of the La Niña event. Most climate models indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely early in the second quarter of 2018, while a continuation of La Niña conditions through the second quarter is less likely. Although a possibility for warming conditions is suggested by some models for the second half of 2018, such long-lead forecasts of the ENSO conditions are uncertain because forecasts going through the March-June period are known to have lower confidence than those made at other times of the year. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.