Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecast

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(Europe/London: 12 May 2026, 12:30–14:30)

This online workshop aims to bring together researchers, operational forecasters, and practitioners to advance the understanding and good practices of probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones. Over three days, with 2-hr sessions each day, participants will some of the current practices, share experiences and identify existing gaps and challenges, including how existing products can support both research and decision-making, based on end-user needs. It will also define priority areas for future development, with particular focus on emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence, and also forward-looking recommendations on how communication of probabilistic products can address user needs. There will be plenty of discussion time, with planned breakout sessions on days 2 and 3. 

Day 1   
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:40hs 
Welcome and setting the scene 
Hongyan Zhu (BoM) / Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IISER) 
12:40 – 13:10hs 
Current state of probabilistic TC forecasting, based on TC-PFP Phase 2-3 survey results 
Alan Brammer (NOAA) / Helen Titley (UK Met Office) 
13:10 – 13:20hs 
Q&A 
 
13:20 – 13:40hs 
Overview of IWTC 
Rob Rogers (Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center) 
13:40 – 14:00hs 
Keynote #3 
TBC 
14:00 – 14:30hs 
Q&A and Discussion 
 
 
  
Day 2 
  
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:50hs 
Decision support using probabilistic products 
James Ashley (BoM) 
12:50 – 13:10hs 
Challenges in working with stakeholders 
Jehan Panti (PAGASA) 
13:10 – 13:30hs 
Communicating probabilistic forecasts 
Robert Prestley (UCAR) 
13:30 – 14:15hs 
Breakout groups 
 
14:15 – 14:30hs 
Plenary discussion 
 
 
  
Day 3 
  
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:50hs 
Overview on AI tools 
Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA) 
12:50 – 13:10hs 
Large ensembles NHC 
Wallace Hogsett (NOAA) 
13:10 – 13:30hs 
Keynote #3 
TBC 
13:30 – 14:15hs 
Breakout groups 
 
14:15 – 14:30hs 
Plenary discussion 
 
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For any queries, please contact: avazcaltabiano@wmo.int