Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecast
This online workshop aims to bring together researchers, operational forecasters, and practitioners to advance the understanding and good practices of probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones. Over three days, with 2-hr sessions each day, participants will some of the current practices, share experiences and identify existing gaps and challenges, including how existing products can support both research and decision-making, based on end-user needs. It will also define priority areas for future development, with particular focus on emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence, and also forward-looking recommendations on how communication of probabilistic products can address user needs. There will be plenty of discussion time, with planned breakout sessions on days 2 and 3.
| Day 1 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:40hs | Welcome and setting the scene | Hongyan Zhu (BoM) / Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IISER) |
12:40 – 13:10hs | Current state of probabilistic TC forecasting, based on TC-PFP Phase 2-3 survey results | Alan Brammer (NOAA) / Helen Titley (UK Met Office) |
13:10 – 13:20hs | Q&A | |
13:20 – 13:40hs | Overview of IWTC | Rob Rogers (Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center) |
13:40 – 14:00hs | Keynote #3 | TBC |
14:00 – 14:30hs | Q&A and Discussion | |
Day 2 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Decision support using probabilistic products | James Ashley (BoM) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Challenges in working with stakeholders | Jehan Panti (PAGASA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | Communicating probabilistic forecasts | Robert Prestley (UCAR) |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion | |
Day 3 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Overview on AI tools | Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Large ensembles NHC | Wallace Hogsett (NOAA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | Keynote #3 | TBC |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion |