El Niño/La Niña Update (December 2014)

Steady warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past two months has resulted in ocean surface temperatures reaching weak El Niño levels. However, the overlying atmosphere is showing a mix of responses, with some indicators exceeding El Nino thresholds, while others remain neutral. Models and expert opinion suggest there is approximately a 70% chance that a weak El Niño event will become established before the end of February 2015.