Volcanoes are part of the forecast

At WMO, we say no hazard respects borders. But it’s just as true that no warning system is complete without the full picture.

Every day, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) work on the front lines of risk. They gather and interpret the data that makes early warnings possible—from high-altitude winds to deep floodwaters. They are the backbone of global forecasting and the bridge between science and safety.

But other natural hazards threaten populations as well, and under the Early Warnings For All initiative, we are working to create seamless warning services.

Volcanoes, for example, might not be the first thing you associate with WMO’s core pillars—weather, water, and climate—but their impacts cut straight through all three.

Take Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991.

Many thousands of lives were saved through early warnings, but the eruption during the passage of a typhoon triggered a deadly domino effect. Heavy, wet ashfall collapsed roofs, taking hundreds of lives. Monsoon rains met volcanic ash, unleashing more than 200 lahars—volcanic mudflows—that roared through valleys, burying homes and infrastructure across three provinces. Damage reached US$ 700 million. The flows didn’t stop for years, taking many more lives. Some travelled 40 kilometers. Tens of thousands displaced. And that was just the local impact.

Globally, Pinatubo threw 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting aerosol cloud circled the planet in weeks, dimming sunlight and lowering global temperatures by about 0.5°C for nearly two years. Asia’s monsoons shifted. Weather patterns veered off course.

One eruption. Worldwide consequences.

We can’t afford to treat volcanoes as outliers.
 

Why volcanic risk must be part of early warnings

1. Volcanoes are multi-hazard events.
   Lava’s just the start. Ashfall, lahars, pyroclastic flows, volcanic gases—each can collide with meteorological and hydrological systems to magnify harm. Rain turns ash to mudflows. Sulfur clouds shift climates. Pinatubo proved this decades ago. Climate volatility makes it more urgent today.
2. Volcanology and atmospheric science are interlinked.
   Volcanic ash models rely on weather data: wind field, humidity, pressure. The same satellites, radar, and LIDAR used for weather forecasting can track volcanic plumes. Aviation, air quality, and public safety all depend on accurate integration.
3. The current system has gaps.
   Unlike meteorological hazards, volcanic warnings lack global consistency. Data sharing is patchy. Standards vary. WMO can help improve that—by supporting coordination and working with volcano observatories in high-risk, low-resource countries, as well as with the international volcanological community.
4. The demand is real and growing.
   Over 800 million people live within 100 kilometers of an active volcano. Countries face layered threats: eruptions combined with cyclones or floods. WMO Members are requesting support for more integrated, multi-hazard approaches.  
5. WMO can act by connecting, not duplicating.
   WMO can add value through the global effort, helping link geohazards to weather and climate services, seasonal forecasts, and public resilience. We can help create platforms that help warnings move faster and land more effectively, and we can exchange ideas and best practices with our geophysical colleagues.

This is the work ahead.

Next week’s Volcano Early Warnings for All workshop, hosted by WMO in Geneva in association with UNDRR, IRFC, ITU and IAVCEI (the international association of volcanologists) from 7 to 9 July is a step forward. We’re hosting experts and policymakers, to strengthen collaboration and share hard-earned lessons.  Coming immediately after IAVCEI’s highly successful Scientific Assembly at the University of Geneva, the momentum is building.

And many countries across the world are already showing us the way, working across disciplines, bringing together national plans, and helping communities get warnings they can trust.

Our job is to help amplify this effort.

To modernize the data infrastructure we all depend on.
To scale investment in observation systems.
To make sure no hazard is left out, whether it comes from the sky or the earth.

Because early warnings save lives.
And all hazards mean all.