El Niño/La Niña Update (April 2014)

The tropical Pacific continues to be ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Model forecasts and expert opinion suggest that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the earlier part of the second quarter of 2014. However, temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed to levels that can occur prior to the onset of an El Nino event, while climate models surveyed by WMO experts show a steady warming of the tropical Pacific during the months ahead. A majority of models reach El Niño thresholds around the middle of the year. If an El Niño event does occur, it remains too early to determine its strength. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean conditions for further El Niño developments, and will assess the most likely local impacts.