El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2021)

Following the 2020-2021 La Niña event the Tropical Pacific has been ENSO-neutral according to both oceanic and atmospheric indicators since about May 2021. The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest that either the cool side of ENSO-neutral conditions continue or that La Niña conditions return near the end of the year: with a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral and 40% for La Niña for September-November, and equal chances of ENSO-neutral and La-Nina re-emergence in October-December and November-January. The models favor ENSO-neutral again in 2022. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely monitor changes in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months and provide updated outlooks.