Weather forecasts and early warnings

Dramatic lightning illuminates storm clouds above a coastal town at night, with islands and a cruise ship visible on the calm sea.

Since the establishment of WMO there have been huge strides in the accuracy and effectiveness of weather forecasts and early warnings. 

Between 1970 and 2021, there were nearly 12,000 reported disasters attributable to weather, climate and water extremes. They caused more than 2 million deaths and US$ 4.3 trillion in economic losses. It is estimated that countries with limited to moderate Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) coverage have a nearly six times higher disaster-related mortality ratio compared with those with substantial to comprehensive coverage.

Early warning systems are a human and moral imperative and an economic must. Early warnings work, they must work for everyone. 

The Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) study on the economic value of enhancing MHEWS revealed a cost-benefit ratio of 1:9. This means that for every US$ 1 invested in MHEWS, an average of US$ 9 in net economic benefits can be realized. The GCA also reports that a US$ 800 million investment in such systems in developing countries could prevent annual losses of US$ 3 billion–US$ 16 billion. Providing just 24 hours’ notice of an impending storm or heatwave can reduce potential damage by 30%. 

Case Studies

Aerial view of a flooded village with submerged buildings and boats. A large group of people gathers on dry ground, surrounded by muddy water. Trees and damaged structures are visible.

Mozambique’s life-saving Early Warning Systems
People and donkeys carrying yellow containers navigate a rocky riverbank with a fast-flowing river in the background.

Afghanistan