MedCOF advances Objective Seasonal Forecasting under the RA VI RCC framework
The Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF) has initiated the next phase in developing objective seasonal forecasts for the Mediterranean region, marking a key step in its ongoing transition from a traditional Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) to a fully-fledged Regional Climate Forum (RCF). This progress was discussed during a Technical Workshop held from 9 to 11 December 2025 in Valencia, Spain, hosted by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
The workshop focused on a preliminary operational roadmap, outlining initial climate and impact indicators, exploring feasible methodologies, and discussing potential lead institutions for pilot activities. This work forms part of the broader research-to-operations (R2O) process, bridging scientific advances in seasonal forecasting with practical, operational applications. Roles and responsibilities are currently being agreed upon in collaboration with MedCOF, SEECOF, PRESANORD, RA VI RCC Network Node leads and Consortium members, NMHSs, ECMWF, EUMETSAT, CMCC, BSC and other partner agencies.
MedCOF, SEECOF, and PRESANORD operate as key components of the RA VI RCC framework, providing the forum mechanisms through which RCC products and services are delivered and co-developed with Members. The Valencia workshop built on prior discussions held in Lisbon and Madrid, emphasizing collaboration, reproducibility, and operational feasibility within the R2O pathway.
The initiative responds to climate change challenges, including shifting climatological baselines and increasing extremes, which highlight the need for objective, calibrated, and verifiable seasonal forecasts. The preliminary roadmap sets out a clear pathway for developing pilot products, testing methodologies, and preparing for a demonstration at the upcoming MedCOF session tentatively planned for May 2026. Through this coordinated process, MedCOF aims to strengthen regional climate services, expand tailored and impact-based products, and support Early Warning for All under the RA VI RCC framework
- Region:
- Region VI: Europe