The Triple Dividends of Early Warning Systems and Climate Services
The Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework offers a systematic approach for evaluating the benefits of climate resilience investments.
By Emma (Bing) Liu, Daniel Kull and Moyenda Chaponda, WMO Secretariat
The life-saving power of Early Warning Systems
Cyclone Freddy’s landfall in Mozambique in 2023 is a powerful testament to the life-saving benefits of early warning systems. It demonstrated that preparedness and the right tools for action can mitigate the devastating impacts of extreme climate-related natural hazards, safeguarding lives and the future of communities.
Just four years earlier, in March 2019, Cyclone Idai had unleashed its fury on central Mozambique, tearing through the region with winds reaching up to 195 kilometres per hour (km/h). The Cyclone’s wrath led to catastrophic flooding and widespread devastation,leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. Over 600 lives were lost, and the economic toll was staggering, with damages estimated at US$ 3 billion1. Schools, roads, bridges, energy assets and water treatment facilities were decimated, bringing the nation to its knees and underscoring the devastating impact of natural hazards.
Cyclone Idai was a stark wake-up call, highlighting Mozambique’s urgent need for a strong Early Warning System (EWS). Supported by the United Nations and the World Bank’s US$ 265 million Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program, before the year was out, Mozambique had embarked on a mission to develop a comprehensive EWS to empower communities through action, using cutting-edge technology, resilient infrastructure and a coordinated emergency preparedness and response framework. In a short time, the Government of Mozambique began producing meteorological warnings, based on forecasts that use satellite imagery and data from the surface observational network, and disseminating them through community radio stations and trained brigades, guiding at risk communities to safety ahead of extreme weather.
Fast forward to 2023, when Cyclone Freddy – a behemoth of a storm and one of the strongest, longest lasting tropical cyclones on record – battered central Mozambique not once, but twice, with terrifying wind speeds reaching 230 km/h. This time, the story was different. Thanks to the newly enhanced EWS, the devastation was by large averted. Communities were prepared and had been relocated ahead of the event to safe areas with sufficient supplies of food and water. The death toll from Cyclone Freddy was much lower: 198 lives were lost compared to the 603 during Cyclone Idai. Economic damages were also significantly lower: estimated at US$ 500 million2, an astonishing 83% reduction compared to the previous event. This substantial decrease in both human and economic losses highlight the extraordinary effectiveness of the EWS.
The benefits were felt across Mozambique. Regina Mutoro, a member of the local disaster committee in Chinde District, shared her experience: “With Cyclone Freddy, we knew what would happen and felt more in control. We were able to prepare and ensure our families were safe.”
This is just one vivid example of the immense benefits of early warnings: they save lives and protect property from natural hazards. These immediate benefits are impressive, but they only scratch the surface of the long-term advantages that EWS and climate services can provide.
Triple Dividend of Resilience
To fully appreciate and understand the broader benefits from investments in EWS – beyond the protection of lives and assets – the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) 3 framework offers a systematic approach for evaluating the benefits of climate resilience investments. Specifically, TDR reveals that resilience investments yield three types of benefits or “dividends”:
- Avoiding economic losses when hazard strike
- Stimulating economic activity thanks to reduced disaster risk even when no hazard occurs
- Generating development co-benefits (Figure 1).
While the first dividend is the most common motivation for investing in resilience, the second and third dividends are equally important. Both accrue regardless of whether the anticipated climate risk materializes, resulting in high adaptation benefit-cost ratios (BCRs), even when the value of potentially avoided losses is not factored in4. Better awareness of and evidence for the full range of benefits demonstrate higher climate resilience investment returns and the generation of more information useful in decision-making across sectors. There are immediate and significant economic benefits to households, the private sector and, more broadly, at the macroeconomic level, which makes a stronger economic case for supporting adaptation through EWS and other climate services.
The First Dividend of Resilience: Avoided damages and losses Investment in EWS is usually driven by a desire to reduce the human cost of disasters. It is estimated that countries with limited to moderate Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) coverage have a nearly six times higher disaster-related mortality ratio compared with that in countries with substantial to comprehensive coverage – a mortality rate of 4.05 per 100 000 population, compared to 0.71. Similarly, countries with limited to moderate MHEWS coverage have nearly five times more disaster-affected people than countries with substantial to comprehensive coverage – 3 132 compared with 6885.
The Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) underscores the economic value of enhancing EWS, revealing a cost-benefit ratio of 1:9 – higher than any other adaptation measure, including investments in resilient infrastructure or improved dryland agriculture (Figure 2). This means that for every US$ 1 invested in EWS, an average of US$ 9 in net economic benefits can be realized. The GCA also reports that providing just 24 hours’ notice of an impending storm or heatwave can reduce potential damage by 30%, and a
US$ 800 million investment in such systems in developing countries could prevent annual losses of US$ 3 billion–US$ 16 billion6.
Policy makers, analysts and others generally measure the socioeconomic impacts of natural hazard using the value of the damage inflicted on buildings, infrastructure, equipment and agricultural production during the event. But US$ 1 in losses does not mean the same thing to a wealthy person as it does to a low-income person, the relative severity of a loss depends on who experiences it. A World Bank study7 demonstrated that losses in well-being8 can be as much as 60% higher than asset losses when considering the vulnerability of the impoverished person.
In addition to reducing loss of life and assets, losses in well-being can also be mitigated. The same study highlighted the importance of EWS, revealing that if all countries adopted the recommended “resilience package” policies, global well-being losses from natural hazards could be reduced by US$ 78 billion annually. Further, universal access to EWS could increase these well-being benefits to US$ 100 billion per year. Ongoing World Bank research estimates that between 1978 and 2018, EWS have averted US$ 360 billion–US$ 500 billion in asset losses and US$ 600 billion–US$ 825 billion in welfare losses.9 Figure 3 highlights the top 15 countries that would benefit the most from EWS as measured by the potential reduction in losses to both assets and well-being, which are of similar magnitude.
The research assessed the global benefits of providing universal access to EWS, assuming that advanced warnings could reduce asset losses from storms, floods and tsunamis by up to an average of 20%. The findings suggest that such warnings could prevent approximately US$ 13 billion in asset losses annually, with well-being gains equivalent to a US$ 22 billion increase in income. These benefits could be weighed against the cost of providing such a service globally. Although no precise estimate exists, a rough calculation suggests an annual cost of around US$1 billion. This indicates that investing in EWS produces significant socioeconomic returns, even without considering their primary benefit: the lives that can be saved.
The study also indicates that socioeconomic and well-being resilience generally increases with income. This is primarily attributed to better disaster risk management infrastructure and systems, higher-quality buildings, more comprehensive public services (for example for health and social protection) and the widespread availability of EWS in wealthier countries.
The second Dividend of Resilience: unlocking economic potential
The second dividend refers to the wider benefits of interventions in reducing “background risk” and unlocking development benefits.
In disaster-prone places, risks of extreme weather events and disasters create an ever-present background risk. Consequently, risk-averse households and firms avoid long-term investments in productive assets, entrepreneurship can be hampered, and planning horizons are shortened, meaning development opportunities are lost. By offering better detection and forecasting of natural hazards and the risks they present, EWS and other climate services can contribute to development gains by encouraging people to take positive risks (for example, larger investments in productive assets, entrepreneurship and innovation)10. Higher confidence that systems are in place to reduce risk also increases a country’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment.
For instance, reducing flood risks in urban areas lowers financial costs, increases security and encourages investments. For example, the GCA reports that, “London’s Canary Wharf and other developments in East London would have been impossible without flood protection from the Thames Barrier”. Since 2014, the Thames Barrier operations have had forecasts of dangerous conditions up to 36 hours in advance. These forecasts – numerical weather predictions – are based on data from weather satellites, oil rigs, weather ships and coastal stations. A range of numerical weather predictions models provide forecasts on expected sea and river levels, supplemented by data from the Met Office and real-time information from the United Kingdom National Tide Gauge Network11. The holistic EWS that informs the Thames Barriers operations is designed to integrate seamlessly with daily life, ensuring the safe development of high-value real estate and commercial areas, thereby safeguarding billions in revenue generation. In 2021, the gross value added per job in London was on average £ 81 400, 40% higher than the national average. This is a substantial contribution to national economic productivity and growth12.
By reducing the uncertainty associated with climate related risks and providing accurate weather forecasts, early warnings and other climate services enable critical economic sectors to make well-informed decisions. In the agribusiness sector, such decisions may include adjusting planting dates or modifying supply chains, which helps to sustain productivity, minimize economic disruptions, and mitigate losses due to adverse weather, ultimately enhancing overall productivity and yield.
In China, weather forecasting services are crucial for the overall national development. According to World Bank statistics, agriculture, forestry and fishing contributed 7.1% to China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 202313. A 2022 study by the China Meteorological Administration14 revealed that from 2008 to 2019, each 1% improvement in weather forecast accuracy resulted in a 0.34% increase in total crop yield, translating to an additional 2.32 million tons of grain. Furthermore, a 1% improvement in forecast accuracy contributed to a 0.5% rise in the added value of the agricultural sector, generating approximately US$ 7.67 billion in revenue in 2021. A national survey also estimated that the overall economic benefits of weather forecasts and meteorological services ranged between US$ 14.4 billion–US$ 1.7 billion. These findings are consistent with ongoing World Bank research in Ethiopia15, which indicates that more accurate forecasts (lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)) are associated with reduced crop losses reported by farmers.
The third Dividend of Resilience: co-benefits of resilience investments
The third dividend encompasses the economic, social and environmental co-benefits associated with a specific intervention. These co-benefits, though diverse, offer immediate advantages even in the absence of disasters, thereby reinforcing the overall value of the investment and enhancing the attractiveness of investing in disaster risk mitigation.
On a direct level, strengthening EWS requires consistent and inclusive community engagement, which enhances the involvement of women and marginalized groups. This process fosters trust, builds positive relationships and, ultimately, promotes social cohesion. In addition, the demonstrated benefits of EWS and other climate services in informing investment decisions in the last section stretch across to disaster risk mitigation investment planning and the optimization of infrastructure investments. For instance, early warnings can signal the need for timely maintenance or upgrades, reducing the likelihood of costly failures during extreme weather events. Additionally, the data and guidance from EWS and other climate services can inform actions and investments to protect and manage the environment, including valuing and optimizing ecosystem services. These processes deliver the third dividend while also contributing to the realization of the first two dividends.
The Triple Dividend of EWS: United Republic of Tanzania’s Coastal Areas16
In early 2016, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) and the Met Office launched a MHEWS project under the Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa (WISER) program. This initiative aimed to strengthen disaster preparedness by enhancing TMA’s capacity to deliver an impact-based five-day weather forecast services for extreme events such as heavy rain, flooding, landslides, strong winds, high waves and extreme temperatures. Initially focused on the coastal regions, the service was later expanded nationwide through further Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investments in Tanzania.
A WISER study in 2020 explored the full spectrum of benefits derived from investments in EWS. The study focused on coastal fishing communities, which provide Tanzania with export revenue and account for 35% of rural employment, and which have faced increasing threats from coastal flooding since 2007. It found that EWS have permitted fishermen and seaweed farmers to become better equipped to plan their economic activities and that some are experiencing a rise in income. However, lower levels of risk from better preparedness do not appear to have encouraged higher levels of saving and investment because of other limiting factors – fishermen are poor with little capacity to save and have no access to microfinancing. The benefits of the EWS investment were categorized into the triple dividend framework:
First Dividend of Resilience:
- People are taking precautions based on the weather information received
- There is a perception that the human casualties and deaths due to extreme weather have decreased along the coast.
Second Dividend of Resilience:
- Lower levels of disaster risk have encouraged small increases in investment, though not yet widespread.
Third Dividend of Resilience:
- Increased community engagement and improved local governance
- Use of forecasts for household economic planning.
Investment in EWS and Climate Services need to be sustainable
Since the launch of the United Nations Early Warning for All initiative in 2022, the major international financing institutions have approved capital investments in EWS of US$ 1.3 billion–US$ 1.5 billion, leveraging and informing over US$ 5 billion in sectoral climate resilience investments17, thereby contributing to the achievement of all of the Sustainable Development Goals and a climate resilient economy. While the costs of operating and maintaining EWS also need to be factored into assessments of economic efficiency, the total investment needs are still minor compared to the total potential benefits. Most of these new investments in EWS are subcomponents of larger projects supporting the resilience of different sectors such as DRM, agriculture, water resources management, urban development and transport, thereby helping to ensure delivery of all three dividends.
Without long-term resources and capacity development for the operations and maintenance of EWS and other climate services, these benefits will not be delivered, resulting in wasted investment. The global development community is exploring ways to ensure the sustainability of EWS and other climate services. The Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) provides an innovative example of how recognition of the “public good” nature of such systems, modern technology and peer support can provide much-needed long-term operational support.
An impact study by Practical Action, which reviewed their programmatic work on early warning systems (EWS) in Peru and Nepal, found that their people-centred approach had led to multiple indirect resilience-building benefits. There was improved public disaster risk knowledge and understanding, particularly around the causes, effects and risks of climate-related weather hazards, 
Left: People-centred EWS skills training, Right: Community members discussing flood EWS in Nepal
Photo: Practical Action
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Footnotes
1 2018-2019 Mozambique Humanitarian Response Plan Revised following Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, May 2019 (November 2018 - June 2019)
2 https://www.arc.int/news/arc-group-announces-insurancepayout-republic-madagascar-aid-recovery-tropical-cyclonefreddy
3 ODI and GFDRR 2015 first introduced the concept of “Triple dividend of resilience” in their paper The Triple Dividend of Resilience. Building on this foundation, the World Resource Institute (WRI) 2022 further developed the approach, with a particular focus on the economic, social and environmental benefits of adaptation investment. The study is available at: The Triple Dividend of Building Climate Resilience: Taking Stock, Moving Forward. In this paper, the theory presented is a synthesis of the earlier
work, combing elements from both.
4 The Triple Dividend of Building Climate Resilience: Taking Stock, Moving Forward
5 Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems 2023
6 Adapt now: a global call for leadership on climate resilience
7 Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters
8 Here “well-being” refers to meeting various human needs, some of which are essential (for example, being in good health), as well as the ability to pursue one’s goals, to thrive and feel satisfied with their life.
9 An ongoing World Bank study: Avoided losses due to improved early warning
10 The "triple dividend" of early warning systems
11 Guidance-The Thames Barrier
12 The London Climate Resilience Review (July 2024)
13 World Development Indicators Data Bank – China – Agriculture, Value Added (% Of GDP)
14 The Agricultural Economic Value of Weather Forecasting in China (2022)
15 Ongoing World Bank study on Weather observations, agriculture outcomes, and welfare benefits- Case of Ethiopia
16 The "triple dividend" of early warning systems
17 Source: Early Warning System Investment Observatory