El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2021)

Following the 2020-2021 La Niña event the Tropical Pacific has been ENSO-neutral according to both oceanic and atmospheric indicators since about May 2021. The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts suggest that either the cool side of ENSO-neutral conditions continue or that La Niña conditions return near the end of the year: with a 60% chance of ENSO-neutral and 40% for La Niña for September-November, and equal chances of ENSO-neutral.