El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2023)

The first “triple dip” La Niña of the 21st century, which began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021, is gradually weakening. WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts predict that there is a 90% chance for a transition to ENSO-neutral during March-May 2023, while there is a small chance of about 10% for La Niña to continue further. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist thereafter, with the chances progressively decreasing to about 80% in April-June, and 60% in May-July. The chances of El Niño developing gradually increase from 15% in April-June, to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August. Due to the low performance of seasonal forecast models at this time of year, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere "spring predictability barrier", it is critical to interpret long-range ENSO forecasts with caution. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.