El Niño/La Niña Update (October 2017)

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean have recently cooled to below normal and are approaching La Niña levels, while most atmospheric indicators have remained ENSO-neutral. Climate models surveyed indicate that weak La Niña conditions may develop along the central to eastern tropical Pacific in the last quarter of 2017, but then weaken to ENSO-neutral in the first quarter of 2018. La Niña conditions have a slightly higher likelihood than ENSO-neutral conditions for the coming few months, while the emergence of El Niño appears is highly unlikely. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.