Agrometeorological Information for Climate Resilient Agriculture in Bangladesh
Today agriculture has become increasingly insecure due to climate change
By Md. Hasan Imam, Md. Mizanur Rahman, Urmee Ahsan, Ananta Sarker, Sabuj Roy, Md. Shah Kamal Khan, Mazharul Aziz & Nabansu Chattopadhyay - Agrometeorological Information Systems Development Project, Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Agriculture has always been under constant threat due to weather variability and climate extremes, today it has become increasingly insecure due to climate change. Bangladesh, a country prone to natural weather, climate and water-related hazards, is frequently affected by floods, drought and tropical cyclones and now it is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Extreme weather events have long been a great concern for the Bangladesh economy and business sector. Over the last decades, the Government of Bangladesh, with support from the World Bank, has invested over US$ 1 billion in coastal infrastructure and cyclone shelters, making Bangladesh a model for community response to tropical cyclones through its Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) in the coastal districts. But despite these investments, the country’s hydrometeorological information infrastructure over land, atmosphere and ocean, its basic public weather services, its forecasting, and its multi-hazard end-to-end early warning systems have remained weak. In consequence, the agriculture sector has suffered repeated setbacks as their need for such services has grown greater with climate change.
Weather and climate dependent sectors – such as agriculture, livestock and fisheries – need tailored weather and climate data, products, information, and services to improve planning and decision-making and to mitigate the adverse impacts of weather and climate extremes. Accurate information on meteorological parameters has great potential to increase farming outputs. Such information can be used to modify crop environments, to protect plants from frost and strong wind and to schedule irrigation and more efficient water management and drought preparedness. The provision of needs-based climate information to farmers can support the management of agricultural resources – land, water and genetic resources – to avoid physical damage to crops and soil erosion. Better understanding of the climate in a location provides opportunities to design various measures to reduce impacts. The lack of reliable agrometeorological information for farming communities is an opportunity lost that impacts the entire country. Agrometeorological information along with reliable dissemination methods using language that farmers understand is essential for sustainable agricultural development and was urgently needed.
Bangladesh’s Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Ministry of Agriculture started to address the problem in 2017 through the Agrometeorological Information Systems Development Project, funded by the World Bank. The Project aimed to advance climate services, including the monitoring of the extreme weather events, in order to disseminate tailored advisories to farming communities. State-of-the-art instruments and technology would be installed along with efficient delivery mechanism for the timely information delivery to farmers.
At the time, Bangladesh had no systematic way of combining meteorological information and forecasts with agriculture related information to produce tailored agrometeorological advisories for farmers. Today, agromet advisory bulletins are prepared at the district and national levels twice a week. A robust database and Decision Support System for generating automated crop and location-specific advisories reduces drudgery and errors, minimizes dependency on specialist inputs, lowers costs and creates a data bank and repository of valuable information and knowledge. Some 30 000 lead farmers are direct beneficiaries of the Project and 300 000 farmers are indirect beneficiaries. The Project’s modernized agrometeorological advisories, early warnings and forecasts have sustainably increased agricultural production by informing decision-making processes in the farming community, thus reducing losses. And DAE, in collaboration with other organizations, is providing early warning services for extreme events to the rural farmers in Bangladesh. This is how it happened.
The Project structure
The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and various research institutions came together to support DAE on the Project. This provided DAE with access to agrometeorological databases and ultimately permitted the development of the agrometeorological advisories and products. The Project’s Joint Technical Working Group (JTWG) on Agrometeorology included experts from DAE, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Bangladesh Sugar Crop Research Institute (BSRI), and Bangladesh Jute Research Institute (BJRI). BMD and BWDB support is the effective functioning of the Working Group and the implementation of the decisions taken by the group.
The effectiveness of agricultural meteorology services is dependent on the availability of qualified, competent technical and professional agrometeorological personnel. Some products, for example, the determination of best dates for planting based on expected climate conditions, require specific expertise and research, and cannot be implemented without adequate capacity building. The Project identified an urgent need to upskill and train personnel. Agrometeorological teaching programs were developed with Bangladesh’s agriculture universities. As and when the universities launch their agrometeorological departments, these will link with the DAE and BMD agromet services to augment research and development as well as extend components of the services. Funding has already been identified to launch the agrometeorological departments in two universities.
Agromet database, products, pools
BMD maintains various observation networks to monitor and assess the extreme events: conventional observation network, agromet observatories, soil moisture stations, Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), cyclone detection radars, Doppler weather radars and satellites observations. Satellite and radar observations are crucial for monitoring and assessing hazards, especially in areas prone to extreme weather events. The DAE Project completed the BMD network by installing 4 501 handheld automatic rain gauge units (see Figure 1). A number of Agro-AWS were also installed.
In addition, the BMD Project has so far installed 125 subdistrict levels AWS to provide real-time data on all the important weather variables. Historical and current agricultural data, such as land holdings, crops/cropping systems cultivated by farmers, and average crop yields in different districts, have been digitized. AWS, agricultural and other agrometeorological databases have been integrated for 487 districts. These databases are being used to carry out a variety of agrometeorological analyses and to generate information and products for tactical decisions by the farming communities in the different subdistrict.
Given the frequency of weather and climate extremes and their adverse impacts on the agriculture sector, the identification of vulnerable farming communities was critical. The Project undertook agricultural disaster risk analysis at the agroecological zone level, based on weather and climate information and socioeconomic factors such as farmer land holdings, indebtedness, soils information, and crops/cropping patterns. The natural characteristics of each climate risk were recorded, including the time of that year that it is most likely to occur, its severity and likely impacts in each geographical area. Climate risk vulnerability maps were developed for all the subdistricts, identifying the areas at risk and the vulnerable members of the community.
To improve the quality of agrometeorological bulletins, operational research and development was required to synthesize next level agromet products, such as drought and flood related information services, indices for different extreme events, and stress indices for crop, livestock, poultry and fishery. Agromet advisories require drought and flood related data for different crops. At this stage of the BMD Project, all of the products are not yet readily available but several are in operational use. It is proposed to develop indicators for aridity anomaly, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for seasonal updates and the last four weeks, SPI forecasts, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), basin level forecasts, rainfall distribution using Markov Chain Model, assured rainfall using incomplete gamma distribution, soil moisture estimation, and many more.
DAE has also started to incorporate satellite-based agrometeorological components, particularly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) composite images developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to generate information on crop vigour and agricultural progress. This information along with the rainfall data are being used in stress monitoring and to track crop growth from sowing to harvesting for all major crops. In the meanwhile, strategies have been worked out so that other remote sensing parameters can be used for monitoring of different weather parameters and events and, ultimately, the preparation of advisories.
Detailed lifecycle information for each important crop is presented in pictorial form on Crop Weather Calendars that can be used for planning, irrigation scheduling and plant protection measures. The broad indications in the calendars may also be useful for formulating policy matters regarding plant breeding, crop adoption, drought proofing, supplemental irrigation, and maximizing crop yields. The information may be especially useful for mitigating the loss of crop due to pests and diseases. Agricultural solutions for pests and diseases, require approaches that are scientific, methodological and socioeconomic. The Crop Calendar early warning models/guidelines permit farmers to implement protective measures in time for the security of their livelihoods as well as for national food security.
Dissemination
Considering the merits and progress of Agromet Advisory Services, widespread dissemination and adoption was a priority. One of Project’s first dissemination goals was the establishment of the Bangladesh Agro-Meteorological Information (BAMIS), a dynamic web portal for agrometeorological services and related information for various users, especially farmers. Meteorological data from BMD and hydrological data from BWDB are displayed in the portal. After being translated and validated by the DAE Agromet Technical Committee, the information is disseminated to the 30 000 lead farmers and made available to other relevant stakeholders. DAE officials and farmers are also connected through the portal, which includes:
- Weather and climate information across Bangladesh
- Twice weekly updated agromet advisories for 64 districts and one weekly national/regional agromet advisory
- Agromet information on crops, weather sensitivities on crops, pests and diseases information with linkages to weather and other measures of control, crop weather calendars, pest and disease weather calendars, and more
- Developing agrometeorological products, including satellite products to help different users to make tactical and strategic decisions
- Information on extreme events
- Special Agromet Advisory Services for livestock, poultry and fishery
- A feedback mechanism on the services provide for farmers and others.
Other user-friendly dissemination platforms expand access further, including traditional media outlets, social media, mobile Apps, digital display boards, community radio and kiosks. The mobile Apps provide farmers to instant access to information on current weather, expected weather and related impacts on crop as well as advice on controlling any emerging pests and diseases. District Agricultural Offices have so far set-up 65 agrometeorological kiosks with digital display touch-screens, computers and printers to provide the specific information to their farming community. These kiosks provide one-stop access to information even to those with minimum literacy, allowing users to navigate through current weather data, agrometeorological advisories, crop cultivation practices, agriculture inputs, a crop diagnostic kit, crop management timetables, farm machinery, market information, and much more. This is the first such network in Bangladesh.
Dissemination also comes in the form of training for users of the services: farmers and DAE Cadre Officers, Agricultural Researchers and Sub-assistant Agricultural Officers, including training of trainers. Some 25 targeted training modules were developed so that each group would receive targeted training.
The learning formats developed for farmers include two single-day training modules and six sequential modules to be conducted before, during and after the cropping season. The modules are designed to build knowledge and understanding on farm management strategies and on the use of agromet information and advisories for decision-making to increase agricultural resilience and productivity. In addition, a support component was created to raise the awareness of weather and climate-related crop issues and of projected climate change and its impacts through roving seminars in farming communities. The seminars help farmers to better understand how weather and climate information can be used to improve their decision-making and provide an opportunity to DAE and BMD to interact directly with farmers and to demonstrate the BAMIS decision support tools and feedback mechanism. The direct interactions between farmers and agricultural weather information providers educates both groups on their needs and requirements. In addition to the seminars, the support component posts agromet bulletin boards and distributes rain gauges throughout the farming communities to further encourage decentralized collection and use of agromet information.
Feedback on the usefulness of the agrometeorological advisories and products is an important aspect of the Project. Feedback assessments are planned every five years to verify that farmers’ feedback have been used to make changes and improvements to the agrometeorological advisories and products.
Future activities
The agromet services have significantly contributed to reducing risks and improving agriculture productivity and farm income in Bangladesh despite local weather vagaries. A comprehensive study on impact assessment and economic benefits of this service showed that farmers are availing themselves of the services and benefiting from them.
But DAE still sees a long way to go to establish a world-class agromet system for the underprivileged and farmers they have not yet reached. A number of future initiatives are planned to upgrade the services, including the establishment of a three-tier structure (Figure 2) to operationalize services and applications for subseasonal to seasonal weather forecasts for agriculture. There is also the development of related contingency plans in case of significant climatic variability, preparation of crop and pest weather calendars for horticultural crops, prediction of lightning and thunderstorms, and much more.
All these required extensive training on the state-of-the-art technology and advanced training in different facets weather, climate and agrometeorology. Looking at these angles, such types of training programmes/courses have been proposed in suitable countries where such facilities are readily available.
