El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2015)

A mature and strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of international climate outlook models suggest that the 2015-16 El Niño is likely to strengthen further before the end of the year. Models and expert opinion suggest that surface water temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to exceed 2° Celsius above average, potentially placing this El Niño event among the four strongest events since 1950 (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98). National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other agencies will continue to monitor the conditions over the tropical Pacific for further El Niño evolution and will assess the most likely local impacts.