El Niño/La Niña Update (June 2008)

La Niña conditions prevailed through May 2008, but the event gradually 

weakened from its peak strength in February. The recent weeks have seen a 

more rapid decay, indicating a possible conclusion to the event. Even if some 

aspects of La Niña continue over the next few weeks, near neutral conditions 

are considered the most likely outcome for the middle part of the year and 

shortly thereafter. Rapid development of El Niño or re-development of La Niña 

is not considered likely for the middle part of the year. However, model 

forecasts and expert interpretation suggest that the pathway of the system is 

loosely constrained at this time, and there is need for careful monitoring over 

the coming weeks. For the second half of the year, the chance of an El Niño 

developing is small, but it cannot be ruled out. In such circumstances, nearneutral conditions should be considered the most likely outcome for the 

second half of 2008.