El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2018)

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators show that ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) continue to prevail. However, most dynamical and statistical forecast models suggest an imminent warming of the tropical Pacific, reaching a weak El Niño level by the fourth quarter of the year. The chance of El Niño is about 70%, with uncertain strength, as model predictions range from ENSO-neutral to a moderate strength El Niño. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.