El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019)

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have generally been at borderline to weak El Niño levels since October 2018. However, it was not until February that some atmospheric indicators reacted to these warmer than average sea surface temperatures. WMO Global Producing Centers of Long Range Forecasts predict ocean temperatures to remain close to current levels through the June-August period, but may ease in September-November. Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of El Niño during June-August 2019 is estimated at 60-65%, decreasing to 50% from September 2019 onwards. The chance for a strong El Niño during 2019 appears low. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.