El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2025)
- WMO predicts 55% chance of weak La Niña conditions over next 3 months
- Borderline La Niña developed as of mid-November
- Seasonal forecasts are vital for climate-sensitive sectors
- WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates inform humanitarian operations
As of mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions across the equatorial Pacific.
According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55% probability that the existing cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific will be consistent with La Niña thresholds, and a 45% likelihood of a transition back to ENSO-neutral conditions during the December–February 2025–2026 period. For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65% to 75%, while La Niña probabilities correspondingly diminish from near 35% to 25%. Prospects for El Niño development remain negligible throughout the outlook period up to April 2026. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks as needed.
About the El Niño/La Niña Updates series
The El Niño/La Niña Update provides analysis of the current conditions and evolution of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. These include detailed information on sea surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation, cloudiness and rainfall patterns. The Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, with contributions from experts worldwide. The El Niño/La Niña Update is crucial for governments, humanitarian and disaster risk agencies, and policymakers to prepare for climate-related impacts and to provide guidance for meteorologists worldwide to refine regional predictions.
