El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2018)

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October 2018. However, most overlying atmospheric indicators have not yet responded, and remain at ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels. The lack of a coupled atmosphere and ocean pattern means El Niño has not yet become established. Most forecast models predict ocean temperatures will remain at El Niño levels through the remainder of 2018 and into the first quarter of 2019. The chance of a full-fledged El Niño to be established during December 2018 - February 2019 is estimated to be about 75-80%. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.