El Niño/La Niña Update (September 2006)

Climate patterns across the equatorial Pacific over the last 1-2 months have
developed a notable tendency toward El Niño conditions. There is general
agreement that the development of a weak to moderate basin-wide El Niño is
now likely and that such an event would persist into early 2007. Expert opinion 
does recognize that, at this early stage, there is a small possibility that the
event could actually dissipate in the next couple of months. However, it may
be noted that El Niño conditions, once established at this time of the year,
almost always persist until early the following year. In view of the evolving
situation, additional caution is required in forming expectations about impacts
in those regions typically affected by El Niño events. The situation is expected 
to become clearer in the next 1-2 months.