El Niño/La Niña Update (April 2017)

Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently exist in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, in the far eastern tropical Pacific during February and March, strong ocean warming, combined with a collapse of the trade winds, resulted in localised severe impacts in Peru and adjacent countries. This strong warming event has now weakened. Most climate models surveyed indicate that basin-wide ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through April-June 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of El Niño development in the subsequent months. The continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is slightly less likely, while the emergence of La Niña appears remote. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.