El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, which generally have been at borderline to weak El Niño levels since October 2018, returned to neutral levels in July. Atmospheric indicators also transitioned to neutral during recent months. WMO Global Producing Centers of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF) indicate that slightly above average sea surface temperatures are most likely for the rest of 2019 and into early 2020, but remaining within ENSO-neutral levels. Given current conditions and model outlooks, the chance of neutral conditions during September-November 2019 is estimated at about 60%, while chances for El Niño and La Niña are about 30% and 10%, respectively. Although neutral conditions are most likely through the December-February 2019-20 season, the chance for a return to El Niño rises slightly to 35%. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the coming months.