El Niño/La Niña Update (April 2023)

The recent multi-year (so-called “triple dip”) La Niña event is over and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state. WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts predict that there is a 40% chance for ENSO-neutral conditions to continue during May-July 2023, and there is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July. El Niño conditions are likely to persist thereafter, with current forecasts and expert assessment indicating the chances gradually increasing to about 60-70% in June-August, 70-80% in July-through October 2023, while the chances of ENSO-neutral are around 30-40% and 20-30%, respectively. The current forecasts rule out La Niña development over the next six months. This month’s update therefore indicates a significantly heightened probability of a transition to El Niño conditions this year, while noting that the Northern Hemisphere ‘spring predictability barrier’, a period characterized by somewhat lower predictive skill, continues to lead to enhanced uncertainty associated with predictions made at this time. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.