El Niño/La Niña Update (June 2023)

The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing El Niño conditions as a result of rapid and substantial changes in oceanic conditions observed in recent months. According to the latest predictions from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts, there is a 90% probability of the El Niño during the second half of 2023 with only a 10% chance of weakening to an ENSO-neutral state. The likelihood of La Niña development is negligible. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor the evolution of El Niño conditions and the associated impacts on temperature and precipitation at national and local level. WMO will provide updated outlooks during the coming months as needed.