El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2024)

The 2023-24 El Niño has peaked during November-January and is now gradually weakening. WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate around a 60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting during March-May 2024, and around a 40% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May. El Niño conditions then become increasingly unlikely, and there is around 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for April-June. A possible transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña during June-August is suggested by some climate models, while the chance of El Niño persisting during June-August is low (around 10%). Due to the relatively low historical performance of long-range forecast models at this time of year, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere "spring predictability barrier", these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.