El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2022) Document 23 May 2011 La Niña conditions continued across most of the tropical Pacific into early May 2011. After peaking in strength around January 2011, the oceanic components of the episode weakened considerably, with a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean during March and April, approaching neutral conditions by mid-May. Despite this warming, the atmospheric indicators remained at near record La Niña levels during April, weakening only in early May, suggesting that some La Niña impacts may continue into June. This time of the year is known to be particularly marked by low forecast skill, but neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario for at least the season ahead. Development of El Niño or re-development of La Niña is not considered likely for the middle part of the year. Further developments during May and June are expected to enable a clearer outlook for the second half of the year. Download document Share: Document type: El NIño / La Niña Update